Lawtitude

Humanity has always been fascinated by flight, from Icarus’s doomed attempt to soar too close to the sun to the Wright brothers’ first successful powered airplane. Aviation has long symbolized ambition, progress, and the limitless possibilities of human ingenuity. Yet, as the modern world grapples with the environmental costs of air travel, the aviation industry now faces a paradox: how can it continue to fuel global connectivity while reducing its carbon footprint?

A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) suggests that the industry’s most promising solution—sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—may fail to meet its ambitious 2030 production targets. If this trajectory continues, the dream of net-zero aviation could remain as elusive as Daedalus’s promise of safe passage. The slow uptake of SAF reveals deeper systemic challenges: the tension between regulatory ambition and industrial capability, the financial strain of transitioning to green alternatives, and the legal and economic repercussions of failing to meet environmental mandates.

The Hope and Hurdles of Sustainable Aviation Fuel
For decades, fossil fuels have been the lifeblood of aviation, powering a sector that transports over 4 billion passengers annually and serving as the backbone of global connectivity. From economic growth to cultural exchange, air travel has been instrumental in shaping the modern world. However, this progress has come at a cost. With aviation responsible for nearly 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions, the environmental toll is becoming impossible to ignore. The industry stands at a critical juncture—one that demands not just technological advancement but a complete reimagining of its fuel sources.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has emerged as a beacon of hope in this transition. Produced from biomass, waste oils, and other renewable sources, SAF has the potential to reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 90% compared to traditional jet fuel. Unlike other proposed solutions, such as electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft—which remain largely experimental—SAF is compatible with existing jet engines and infrastructure, making it a viable short- to medium-term alternative. In theory, it represents the most pragmatic path to decarbonizing air travel without requiring an immediate overhaul of global aviation systems.

Yet, despite its promise, SAF currently accounts for a mere 0.3% of the world’s jet fuel supply. This stagnation is not due to a lack of technological innovation but rather a confluence of economic and logistical hurdles. The primary challenge is cost—SAF is three to five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, making it an unattractive option for airlines operating on razor-thin profit margins. Unlike the heavily subsidized fossil fuel industry, SAF producers face significant financial constraints, with limited government incentives to bridge the gap. The high cost of production, coupled with the absence of a robust supply chain, has resulted in a severe bottleneck, preventing SAF from achieving the scale necessary to become a mainstream alternative.

Beyond cost, logistical barriers further complicate SAF adoption. Current production facilities are insufficient to meet even a fraction of global aviation demand, and the infrastructure needed to transport and distribute SAF remains underdeveloped. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty has deterred investment, as airlines and fuel suppliers struggle to navigate inconsistent policies across jurisdictions. Without clear, long-term commitments from governments, the industry lacks the stability required to invest in large-scale SAF production.

The aviation industry now finds itself at an inflection point. The pressure to decarbonize is mounting, with governments implementing stricter emissions regulations and consumers increasingly demanding sustainable travel options. Either the sector must rapidly innovate and scale SAF production, or it will face mounting financial and reputational risks. The path forward requires coordinated action—public and private sector collaboration, increased government subsidies, and the rapid expansion of SAF production capacity. Without these measures, the vision of a sustainable aviation industry will remain just that—a vision, forever out of reach.

The Regulatory Challenge: Ambition vs. Feasibility
Recognizing the urgent need for cleaner aviation, regulatory bodies have imposed strict mandates to accelerate SAF adoption. The European Union’s ReFuelEU initiative, for instance, mandates that airlines use at least 2% SAF by 2025, rising to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. Meanwhile, the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act offers tax incentives for SAF production, aiming to make it more financially viable.

However, industry leaders remain skeptical about meeting these targets. Executives from major European carriers—including Ryanair, Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM—have warned that current SAF production levels are woefully insufficient. Without substantial subsidies, technological breakthroughs, or an overhaul of supply chains, the 2030 goals may remain aspirational rather than achievable.

Legal and Economic Consequences of Falling Short
Should the aviation industry fail to meet its SAF mandates, the legal and financial consequences will be severe. Airlines operating in jurisdictions with stringent climate laws may face fines, regulatory scrutiny, and even litigation for non-compliance.

Already, environmental groups have demonstrated their willingness to take legal action against corporations that fail to uphold sustainability commitments. In the U.S., lawsuits have been filed against regulatory agencies for supporting polluting biofuels, setting a precedent that could extend to SAF mandates. Additionally, failure to scale SAF production may invite accusations of “greenwashing,” damaging corporate reputations and undermining consumer trust.

From an economic standpoint, the failure to invest in sustainable fuel could leave European and North American carriers at a competitive disadvantage. Airlines in regions with weaker climate regulations—such as China and certain Middle Eastern nations—could continue operating on cheaper fossil fuels, outpricing their Western competitors. This imbalance risks creating a regulatory arbitrage, where companies move operations to jurisdictions with laxer environmental standards, thereby undermining global sustainability efforts.

A Collaborative Path Forward
The aviation industry must act decisively to avoid these pitfalls. Governments, private sector players, and research institutions must collaborate to make SAF both affordable and scalable. Large-scale investments in biofuel refineries, financial incentives for airlines, and research into next-generation synthetic fuels will be critical.

One promising example is the five-year agreement between BCG and World Energy to purchase SAF certificates, effectively reducing carbon emissions by 100,000 metric tons of CO₂. Such partnerships could provide a blueprint for broader industry adoption. However, piecemeal efforts will not be enough; a systemic shift in fuel production and procurement policies is necessary.

The transition to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is more than an environmental commitment—it is a defining test of whether the world can turn ambitious climate goals into tangible progress. For too long, industries have relied on technological breakthroughs to solve systemic issues, forgetting that innovation alone is not enough. Without the right policies, infrastructure, and investment, even the most promising solutions risk falling short.

The failure to meet SAF production targets is not just a delay; it is a reflection of deeper structural challenges that must be addressed. Governments, businesses, and policymakers must recognize that sustainability cannot be achieved through pledges alone—it requires coordinated action, long-term vision, and the courage to dismantle bureaucratic roadblocks. If the world truly seeks to revolutionize air travel, the time for half-measures is over. The sky will only remain open to future generations if we ensure that progress is built on more than just words.